Happy Christmas?
When the Season of Hope Meets the Reality of Autocracy | A Christmas Warning from Europe - and from History
December 23, 2025
Hello again, my lovelies👋🏻🤩
In December 1989, Václav Havel - a playwright who had spent years imprisoned for his activism - delivered his first Christmas address as president of newly-free Czechoslovakia. The Velvet Revolution had just swept away decades of communist authoritarianism through peaceful resistance. Havel spoke of hope, democracy, and the sacred responsibility of freedom.
That same December, Nelson Mandela spent his final Christmas on Robben Island before his release would help dismantle apartheid. Even in prison, he had organized Christmas dinners where political enemies broke bread together, planting seeds of the reconciliation that would reshape a nation.
Christmas has long served as a moment when humanity pauses to remember its better angels - when leaders call for peace over confrontation, unity over division, and hope over despair.
This Christmas, I write to you from Europe with a different message: it is time to consider whether you should leave America before America decides you cannot leave at all.
Eight Weeks Since James and Lyssa Landed in the Netherlands
When I published “When the Courts Can’t Save You Anymore” in mid-November, I told you about James and Lyssa Kerr - the Florida couple who sold everything and relocated to a gorgeous beach-house 30 minutes from Amsterdam. They left because they understood something fundamental: when federal courts issue orders and the executive branch simply ignores them, constitutional safeguards have failed.
What I didn’t tell you was how close they came to being trapped.
James and Lyssa originally planned to relocate to Scotland. We spent four months in intensive preparation - researching visa pathways, consulting immigration attorneys, preparing documentation, and building a relocation plan. Then, in late May 2025, the UK Government published its Immigration White Paper, announcing the most significant overhaul of the immigration system since 2020.
The changes were brutal. From July 22, 2025, the salary threshold they would need to meet to be able to employ James in their new Scottish business had jumped from £36,000 to £51,000 per year (plus on-costs), and their path to settlement had just extended from 5 to 10 years - potentially with retroactive effect. Most importantly, compliance rules tightened dramatically.
Scotland’s government protested loudly that the changes would “profoundly impact” Scottish workers, the ability to attract high-performing entrepreneurs like James, and undermine Scotland’s specific demographic needs. It made no difference. Westminster imposed the changes uniformly.
By late September 2025, James and Lyssa’s UK pathway had collapsed under the weight of new restrictions. Four months of work, thousands in consulting fees, and carefully laid plans - all worthless because the UK immigration system had become actively hostile to exactly the kind of skilled, self-sufficient migrants they represented.
They pivoted to the Netherlands.
Under the Dutch-American Friendship Treaty (DAFT), the process took five weeks. They made the final decision in the last week of September 2025. They left Florida on the night of October 31st 2025 - Halloween, appropriately enough given what they were escaping - and had started their new lives before lunchtime of the following day.
Since then, the situation in America has accelerated in ways that validate every decision they made - and every day they didn’t wait.
The Epstein Files: When “Transparency” Becomes Mockery
On November 19, 2025, President Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act - a law passed 427-1 in the House and unanimously in the Senate - requiring Attorney General Pam Bondi to release all documents related to Jeffrey Epstein within 30 days. The law explicitly prohibits withholding information based on “embarrassment” to government officials.
As y’all are acutely aware, this December 19 deadline came and went.
What the Justice Department released was a heavily redacted collection largely composed of documents already publicly available, with some Trump photographs mysteriously removed from the DOJ website. Over 1,200 individuals were redacted. More than 550 pages were entirely blacked out. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche admitted on Fox News there would only be a “partial release,” with more documents trickling out “over the next couple weeks”.
Attorney General Bondi proclaimed Trump’s administration “the most transparent administration in history” on social media - a claim immediately fact-checked by X’s community notes feature pointing out the “full of redactions and deleted pages” reality.
Congressional Democrats, including Rep. Thomas Massie - who co-sponsored the bill - are now exploring holding Bondi in contempt of Congress for defying a law the President himself signed.
This is not bureaucratic delay. This is an Attorney General flouting Congressional law while the President who signed that law does nothing to enforce it. When the executive branch can simply ignore laws it dislikes - even laws it pretended to support - you are watching the rule of law dissolve in real time.
The Accelerating Catalog of Democratic Breakdown
Since James and Lyssa touched down at Schiphol Airport on October 31, the pace of authoritarian consolidation has intensified:
Travel Bans Double in Size (December 15-17)
The Trump administration expanded its travel ban to 39 countries - more than doubling from the 19 countries banned in June. The expansion includes Nigeria, one of the top ten sources of international students to the United States, effectively blocking F and J student visas. Palestinian Authority travel documents are now completely banned.
These aren’t security measures. These are ideological purges disguised as vetting procedures, systematically closing America to entire regions of the world while claiming concern about “overstays” and “document reliability”.
Denaturalization Targets Escalate (December 17)
Internal guidance obtained by The New York Times reveals that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has set a target of referring 100-200 denaturalization cases per month to the Justice Department during fiscal year 2026.
That translates to 1,200-2,400 cases annually - compared to approximately 120 total cases filed from 2017 through 2025.
Twenty-six million naturalized Americans are now living under a system where monthly quotas have been established to strip citizenship. Former USCIS officials called the targets “arbitrary numerical goals” that politicize the revocation of citizenship and transform “a serious and uncommon measure into a blunt instrument”.
This is not fraud prevention. This is systemic intimidation of naturalized citizens - a warning that your citizenship is conditional, subject to monthly quotas, and revocable based on standards that shift with political winds.
El Salvador Prison Torture Confirmed (November)
Human Rights Watch and Cristosal released a comprehensive report documenting that the 252 Venezuelans deported to El Salvador’s CECOT maximum-security prison in March and April 2025 were systematically tortured. Detainees reported being beaten with batons, sexually assaulted, and told “You have arrived in hell” and “you’ll only leave in a coffin”.
Only one percent of those deported had violent crime convictions in the United States. The Trump administration accused them - without evidence - of gang affiliation. A federal court has since ruled the deportations violated due process.
The United States sent human beings to a foreign prison known for torture, based on unproven gang allegations, without due process. Venezuela is now investigating Salvadoran officials for torture of people the U.S. sent there.
When your government exports people to torture facilities and federal courts can only issue rulings the government ignores, you have crossed into territory where “unlawful” and “unconstitutional” have become suggestions rather than constraints.
The European Mirror: What the World Sees
From where I sit in the UK - one of America’s closest allies - the view is unambiguous.
A YouGov poll conducted in February-March 2025 by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that 43% of Europeans believe Trump has authoritarian tendencies, while 39% consider him an outright dictator. Only 13% of Europeans believe Trump respects democratic principles.
51% of Europeans consider Trump an enemy of Europe
63% believe Trump makes the world less safe.
70% agree that the EU must now rely on its own forces for security, because America under Trump cannot be trusted.
If that was a poll in March 2025, only 2 months into his “reign” I hate to think what the results would look like now – especially since the infamous National Security Strategy paper was released earlier this month which advocates the US fomenting regime change in Europe in favour of far-right movements and parties.
These are not the assessments of adversaries. These are the conclusions of your democratic allies - countries that have stood with America through two world wars, the Cold War, and the War on Terror.
When the UK stops sharing intelligence with the US over suspected illegal killings, when 93 countries jointly condemn US sanctions on International Criminal Court officials, when NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warns that Trump’s comments about abandoning allies “undermine all of our security”, you are watching the transatlantic alliance fracture.
Carnegie Endowment scholar Constanze Stelzenmüller wrote in June 2025 that European leaders now find themselves “obliged to fight off a strategic pincer movement from both Russia and the United States”. The phrase captures the profound shift: America is no longer seen as the guarantor of European security but as a potential threat to it.
The Happy Christmas Question…
Could He Close the Exits?
James and Lyssa asked me this question before they left: “What if Trump decides Americans can’t leave?”
I told them the truth: history says it’s possible. Authoritarian regimes routinely impose exit restrictions as they consolidate power.
The Authoritarian Playbook on Exit Controls
Research on transnational authoritarianism documents a consistent pattern: autocracies face an “illiberal paradox” where they want to control emigration for security reasons while benefiting economically from emigrant remittances and diaspora wealth. They resolve this paradox through one of two strategies:
Controlling “exit” through border securitization - exit visas, passport revocations, travel bans, and (worst case scenario) shoot-to-kill policies at borders (North Korea, Soviet Union, Berlin Wall)
Silencing “voice” through transnational repression - monitoring, intimidating, and attacking diaspora communities abroad while allowing physical emigration
The most concerning cases combine both strategies.
Recent Precedent: Hong Kong’s Exit Bans
In August 2021 - less than two years after Hong Kong’s National Security Law was imposed - the Hong Kong government enacted legislation giving authorities power to block travel “for any reason”. The law allows “exit bans” preventing critics from leaving and bars entry to anyone the government deems threatening.
In the first year of the National Security Law, before exit bans were formalized, Hong Kong experienced a net outflow of 87,100 permanent and non-permanent residents. Those who understood where the trajectory led - and had the means to leave - did so quickly.
The “Hong Kong 12” who attempted to flee by boat to Taiwan in 2020 were intercepted and prevented from leaving.
Once the exit ban powers were enacted, the window closed.
The US Passport Revocation Attempt
In September 2025, Rep. Brian Mast introduced H.R. 5300, which included a provision allowing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to revoke or deny passports to U.S. citizens accused of providing “material support” to terrorist organizations. The provision used language nearly identical to Trump administration rhetoric targeting pro-Palestinian activists and would have applied to citizens without criminal conviction or due process.
Following significant backlash from civil liberties organizations, Mast pulled the provision from the bill. But the fact that it was proposed - and that Mast initially defended it as ensuring officials are “accountable to the president’s foreign policy” - reveals the intent.
The infrastructure for exit control is being built.
The attempt was made.
It was withdrawn not because the administration changed its mind about the principle, but because public opposition forced a tactical retreat.
Could It Happen?
Legally, the Secretary of State already has authority under 22 C.F.R. §51 to refuse or revoke passports under certain conditions, including “actions that conflict with U.S. national security or foreign policy interests”.
This language is broad enough that a sufficiently motivated administration could weaponize it.
Practically, the Trump administration has demonstrated a pattern: order the action, fight the court challenges, ignore unfavorable rulings, and continue operating as if those rulings don’t exist.
They did this with birthright citizenship. They did this with Harvard funding freezes. They did this with Venezuelan deportations to El Salvador.
They’re doing it with the Epstein files right now.
If Trump decided to implement exit restrictions, the sequence would likely be:
Declare a national security emergency related to “terrorism” or “foreign influence”
Issue executive orders restricting passport issuance/renewal for targeted groups
Defend the orders in court while continuing enforcement
Ignore or appeal unfavorable rulings
Gradually expand restrictions while testing limits
The question is not whether it’s possible. The question is whether it’s likely - and on what timeline.
The Exodus Accelerates
The data suggests Americans with options are increasingly making the same calculation James and Lyssa made:
Nearly 5,000 Americans renounced citizenship in 2024 (specifically 4,820) - a 48% increase from 2023
25% of all Americans are considering relocation internationally, according to the Immigration Advice Service
40% of Americans aged 16-24 are considering emigration
1,500% surge in emigration-related Google searches following the November 2024 election
The destinations are revealing: Canada (29%), UK (19%), Australia (8%), Netherlands (7.5%). These are mature democracies with functional rule of law - places where courts actually constrain executives, where constitutions are enforced, and where citizenship isn’t subject to monthly denaturalization quotas.
The Netherlands - where James and Lyssa have relocated - now hosts 43,208 American expats. The DAFT visa pathway, the 30% tax ruling, excellent healthcare, and proximity to European capitals make it attractive.
But as one migration scholar noted, the primary appeal is “what it is not”: it is not the United States, under current conditions.
The Christmas Message from Europe
Christmas is supposed to be a season of hope.
Václav Havel offered hope in 1989 because Czechoslovakia had just reclaimed democracy from authoritarianism. Mandela offered reconciliation because he believed democratic transformation was possible.
Sadly, at this moment, what I’m offering is something different: a warning from someone who has watched authoritarian consolidation unfold in real time, studied the patterns, helped clients navigate exits, and seen the window narrow.
If you are considering leaving, the time to move is now - before the exit becomes difficult, before passport renewals face “enhanced vetting,” before travel restrictions expand, before denaturalization targets reach your profile, before the window closes entirely.
I don’t write this to create panic. I write this because the people who escaped authoritarian regimes successfully - whether from the Soviet Union, China during the Cultural Revolution, apartheid South Africa, or Hong Kong after the National Security Law - share one common trait: they understood the trajectory and moved while movement was still possible.
The Hong Kong exodus saw 87,100 people leave in one year. They read the National Security Law, understood where it led, and left before exit bans were imposed. Those who waited found themselves trapped.
The UK Window Closed. The Netherlands Window Remains Open.
James and Lyssa’s experience with UK immigration demonstrates how quickly pathways can collapse. Four months of preparation became worthless when Westminster imposed new restrictions in July 2025. Had they committed to the UK route earlier, they might have qualified under transitional protections - but only if they’d already been in the system before July 22, 2025 – and we missed that by 5 days...
The Netherlands DAFT pathway, by contrast, remains accessible. Processing time is 8-12 weeks, though under the current “expedited procedure” (in effect through 2026), applicants can begin living and working in the Netherlands immediately after arrival while waiting for final approval. The €4,500 business deposit requirement is straightforward, the visa is renewable after 2 years, and permanent residency is possible after 5 years.
But the Dutch government is also considering immigration changes. A proposal to extend the citizenship residency requirement from 5 to 10 years is under discussion - likely to take effect in 2027 if passed, though without retroactive application. The 30% tax ruling has been scaled back from 30% to 27% for new applicants as of 2027.
Windows narrow. They don’t stay open indefinitely.
The Mechanics Are Straightforward
The process James and Lyssa followed is replicable:
Identify visa pathway
Establish business entity
Navigate tax implications
Secure housing
Transfer credentials
Arrange for dependents and pets
Time the exit…
The timeline from decision to relocation is typically 6-12 months for the UK or Germany, faster for Portugal/Spain digital nomad visas - but as James and Lyssa proved, the Netherlands can be done in 5 weeks if you move decisively.
The Choice That Isn’t Really a Choice
James slept soundly for the first time in months on his first night in the Netherlands. Lyssa wept driving through the Dutch countryside - tears of relief at being surrounded by functional democracy, where courts actually constrain the executive, where parliament can remove governments that violate constitutional norms, where international law isn’t a suggestion.
Lyssa was in happy tears again yesterday, when both of them collected their Dutch ID cards – the legal documentation that says: “we’re so pleased to have you here – you’re now (literally) a card-carrying part of our society and economy”
They’re not coming back. Neither are the thousands of others who’ve made the same calculation.
The question isn’t whether you should be concerned. The question is whether you’re concerned enough to act while action is still possible.
If You’re Considering An Exit
If you’re thinking whether it’s time to consider a similar move to that made by James and Lyssa, you don’t have to figure it out alone. I’ve created a playbook - and network of contacts - that James and Lyssa have successfully used to help them navigate complex cross-border relocations, immigration compliance, and business establishment across multiple jurisdictions, as well as a full white-glove service that meant they didn’t have to do all of this by themselves.
I know what you need to do to meet the requirements of the DAFT visa, how to optimize tax treatment of property sales, how to transfer professional credentials, how to find neighbourhoods where your family will be safe and your dogs will be welcome.
I know the questions to ask before you commit, the timelines you need to plan for, and who to talk to so you have financial strategies that actually work when you’re moving significant assets across borders.
More importantly, I know what it feels like to believe that institutions matter - and I know what it looks like when they actually do work.
If you want to explore whether Europe is a viable option for your family or your business, if you want to understand your visa options without the sales pitch or the panic, or if you simply want to talk through whether leaving is the right decision for you right now, get in touch.
You can book a call with me here - or reach out directly via Substack. I can’t promise to make the decision easier. But I can promise to make the process transparent, the timelines realistic, and the support genuinely practical.
You don’t have to stay somewhere you no longer feel safe.
And you don’t have to figure out the exit alone.
In 1989, Václav Havel spoke of hope because his country had just reclaimed freedom. In 2025, I speak of urgency because I’m watching your country lose it - and because I know what happens when people wait too long to leave.
Christmas is the season when we’re supposed to believe in hope, redemption, and the possibility of transformation. I do believe in those things.
So Happy Christmas my lovely - and my wish for your New Year is that it is filled with love, hope, laughter, and the odd bit of rebellion - wherever you are (or wish to be…)
For Americans considering relocation to Europe, particularly the Netherlands, or the UK, we provide comprehensive consultation services, and a full white-glove relocation support program. Find out more by booking a free and no-obligation call with me or DM me right here.
This analysis is based on documented public information, legal filings, government reports, and international assessments current as of December 23, 2025. All factual claims are cited to authoritative sources.
Because that’s what happens when you are one of the last remaining colonies of Empire, and England won’t let you go…
Many of whom appear to be perpetrators - or at least perpetrator adjacent - as well as victims. Though with the DoJ’s new efficiency, they didn’t redact the name of at least one of the victims…
Including, apparently, Ethiopia
I have a detailed guide to all the European visa options, if you’d like a copy…
The only location I can currently, wholeheartedly recommend for ease and speed of process