The Bright New Future of US R&D?
Potential Implications of the 2024 Republican Sweep | Healthcare & Pharma | Privatization | Education & Academic R&D | Regulation, Funding, Immigration Impacts | Specific Sectors Under Threat
Hello my lovely👋🏻
I’m not using the starry-eyed emoji today, my dear, because quite frankly I’m not in the mood. I won’t be calling you my sweet summer child today either.
This post is a bit more hard-edged, because today is a day that calls for insight and analysis, as well as a bit of a crystal ball, to assess the impact a strong “America First” and anti-science (apart from the bits they like) agenda could have on businesses and leaders in the STEM sector
Why? Well, there are significant parallels with what happened to the UK economy and R&D following our own turkeys-voting-for-Thanksgiving moment in 2016, and I’ve been here before, even if you haven’t. 🫨🙄
I started my career as an economic development consultant in 1990, including nearly 6 years commuting between Scotland and Poland, helping Polish businesses, leaders, and regional governments deal with the aftermath of the collapse of a strongman-led regime (Communism) in the early to mid 1990s.
I co-authored the Foreign Direct Investment playbook for the Scottish Government in the early 2000s, and managed the team that evaluated the commercialisation of Scotland’s very considerable STEM R&D for the same clients, before co-authoring another playbook on what needed to change (and how to make these changes) to improve its economic impact.
So, I’ve been putting my economic analyst’s hat back on to look at the potential implications of a Republican trifecta for US Founders and CEOs in the STEM sectors - not to mention thinking about the economic ripples from your shores that could create a tsunami by the time they hit Europe…
I’m going to start with the blindingly fecking obvious here: Tuesday’s elections were a seismic shift that will reshape American politics1 and policy for years to come, with the Republican sweep of the Presidency, Senate, and House of Representatives.
This trifecta of power presents a unique opportunity for the GOP to implement its vision across all sectors, with potentially far-reaching consequences for research and development (R&D) in the United States.
This post explores the likely impacts on both private sector and academic R&D, with a particular focus on healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and education.
Healthcare and Pharmaceutical R&D: A New Landscape
Affordable Care Act Repeal: From Promise to Policy
With control of both the executive and legislative branches, Republicans are now in a position to fulfill their long-standing promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
This move is likely to have significant implications for medical research:
We can expect a substantial reduction in funding for medical research, as the ACA's provisions for research funding are likely to be eliminated.
A decrease in clinical trials is probable, as fewer insured individuals may lead to reduced participation.
Research priorities are likely to shift, focusing more on high-profit areas rather than broader public health needs.
Drug Pricing and Regulation: Market-Driven Solutions
Now one surprising thing that President-elect Donald Trump did do in his last term as President was to sign 4 executive orders (in 2020) aimed at lowering prescription drug prices.
So assuming he isn’t side-lined to a presidential memory-care facility in the next 6 months2 any push to lower drug prices, now backed by a Republican Congress, is set to reshape the pharmaceutical R&D landscape:
Pharmaceutical companies may see reduced profits, potentially leading to decreased R&D budgets.
We're likely to see an increased focus on cost-effective research and development strategies.
A shift towards developing drugs with higher profit margins is probable, potentially at the expense of research into less lucrative but equally important areas.
Healthcare Privatization: Embracing Market Forces
With the Heritage Foundation's market-based solutions now having a clear path to implementation, we can expect:
A significant increase in private sector R&D investment in healthcare technologies and services.
A likely decrease in public funding for basic medical research.
A marked shift towards more commercially viable research projects.
This could be a double-edged sword for Founders in this arena.
Education: A New Era for Academic R&D
Department of Education Elimination: From Proposal to Reality
With Republican control of all branches of government, the proposed closure of the Department of Education and return of educational authority to the states is now a real possibility.
This could significantly impact academic R&D:
We're likely to see a substantial reduction in federal funding for education-related research.
Expect increased variability in research funding and priorities across states.
A shift towards more privately funded educational research is probable.
Almost certainly federal funding will be focused on what the Heritage Foundation Presidential transition team think is suitable, appropriate, and godly.
Higher Education Reform: Reshaping the Academic Landscape
Conservative policies emphasizing reduced federal involvement in higher education are now likely to be implemented, leading to:
A probable decrease in federal funding for university research programs.
Increased reliance on private sector partnerships for academic research.
A likely shift in research focus towards more commercially applicable areas.
This may have significant implications for where, and in what, VC and other private sector investors place their money. We are also likely to see certain areas of academic research (and the early stage businesses that come out of this) become concentrated in strongly Blue states, where the Governors are more likely to implement Executive Orders to protect and enhance intellectual curiosity and freedoms.
The Broader R&D Landscape: A Republican Vision
Regulatory Environment: Cutting Red Tape
With Republicans in control, we can expect significant deregulation across sectors:
Faster approval processes for new drugs and medical devices are likely.
Expect a reduction in environmental and safety regulations, affecting research priorities.
However, an increased emphasis on industry-led standards and self-regulation is probable - particularly for products and devices that will be sold into Europe.
Funding Priorities: A New Direction
The Republican-controlled government is likely to shift funding priorities:
Expect a significant increase in defense-related R&D funding.
A probable decrease in climate change and renewable energy research funding.
Emphasis on research with clear commercial applications is likely.
Immigration Policies: Reshaping the R&D Workforce
Stricter immigration policies are now likely to be implemented, impacting the R&D workforce:
Expect challenges in recruiting international researchers and students.
A brain drain in certain scientific fields is almost certain - particularly amongst female researchers and Founders who don’t fancy living in New Gilead
Whilst there is likely to be an increased focus on developing domestic talent in STEM fields, changes to the education system from K-12 and beyond may make this challenging to achieve.
In particular, the apparent dislike for students developing critical thinking skills (crucial to scientific discovery) will potentially backfire in terms of maintaining the USA’s current global lead.
Specific Challenges in Key Research Areas
Vaccine Research and Biotechnology
The proposed ban on "gain of function" research is now likely to be implemented, with significant implications:
Expect limitations on the scope of research that can be conducted in the US.
A potential slowdown in vaccine development and other biotechnology advancements is likely.
Complications in international collaborations due to biosecurity concerns are probable.
Genetic and Reproductive Research
Given the extreme conservative stance on reproductive issues is now backed by full government control, as well as by the Supreme Court:
Research related to embryonic stem cells, in vitro fertilization, or genetic editing is likely to face increased scrutiny or restrictions.
Research that focuses on changing what Gawd has given you in terms of chromosomal genetic disorders is also likely to be under threat
Expect a reduction in funding for reproductive health research.
Conclusion: Navigating a New R&D Landscape
The Republican sweep of the 2024 elections marks a significant turning point for R&D in the United States.
We can expect a more market-driven approach to R&D, with potential reductions in federal funding for basic research and a greater emphasis on commercially viable projects.
For investors and innovators in fields like vaccine research, biotechnology, and genetic/reproductive research, these changes present both challenges and opportunities.
As the new administration and Congress take office, stakeholders in the R&D community – from academic researchers to biotech entrepreneurs – will need to adapt quickly to this new landscape.
The decisions made in the coming months and years will shape the trajectory of American innovation for decades to come, potentially altering the country's position as a global leader in scientific research and development.
Go! Confront the problem! Fight! Win! And call me when you get back, dahling. I enjoy our visits…
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻 Thank you for reading Founders' Fuel™. I write these posts so that I can help people like you become the leaders their businesses (and dreams) deserve.
This post is public so please feel free to share it with someone that you think will appreciate or benefit from it.😎🤜🏻🤛🏻
Don’t forget Trump’s promise to be a “Dictator on Day One”, and to remove the need for elections in the future. When someone tells you what they are and what they want to do, believe them 🙈🤯
Because if he is, all bets are off about prescription drug prices . Who knows what Vance/Musk/Kennedy and their oligarch tech bro friends, will want to do here.