The Fork in the Road - Pt I : The Executive Storm
How Trump's Orders Are Reshaping America's Innovation Landscape
Hello my lovely! 👋🏻😎
It seems like an absolute age since I last wrote, but in fact it’s only 5 weeks.
Five weeks for the new Administration to show its true colors: not only tanking the stock market, but making invasion threats to its NATO allies and scrapping any interest in science and technology…
…unless it’s yet another Hatch-Act-breaking launch of a Presidential Crypto Currency or deciding to let a group of DOGE incels “rebuild” your federal SS database because *checks notes* COBOL’s so lame…
So if you haven’t already taken to the hard stuff by lunch, it's time for you to grab your favorite caffeinated beverage, settle in, and prepare for some serious conversation about the new reality facing America's innovation ecosystem.
I’ve spent the last 5 weeks doing some serious research, and strategizing/plotting potential ways forward for US STEM businesses and innovation - culminating in a White Paper on the Systemic Threats to Tech, and a pretty decent escape route if that’s what you’re considering.
This week, I’m taking all of this research and doing a week-long deep dive into what Trump's executive orders, his bizarro appointments, and what the DOGE chainsaw is likely to mean for you, your teams, and your business.
No sugar-coating here, just the facts with a dash of strategic foresight to help you navigate these choppy waters.
The Tsunami of Change - What's Actually Happening
My sweet summer child, the science and technology landscape in America is experiencing seismic shifts that make San Francisco fault lines look positively stable. Since taking office on January 20th, 2025, President Trump has unleashed a flurry of executive orders that are already sending shockwaves through research institutions, federal agencies, and STEM businesses nationwide.
Scientists across the US have been left reeling as research funding has been slashed, staff told to quit, and key programs withdrawn. This isn't just affecting government employees – the ripple effects are being felt throughout the entire innovation ecosystem.
I’ve took what we know to be true now, and (thanks to some Deep Research crystal ball gazing) have produced what I think is likely to be a timeline for how some of the key threats to STEM in the US will play out…
Let's break down what we know is happening (and trust me, it's not pretty)…
Slashing the Science Budget: Numbers That Make You Wince
The administration has reportedly asked the National Science Foundation to lay off between 25-50% of its staff within two months, with plans to cut the agency's annual budget from approximately $9 billion to $3 billion.
Similarly, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could see half its staff sacked and its budget slashed by 30%.
These aren't just numbers on a spreadsheet, my lovely. These are the agencies that fund much of America's basic and applied research – the very foundation upon which tech innovation is built.
The DEI Earthquake: Sweeping Eliminations
One of the most wide-reaching orders mandates the termination of “all DEI, DEIA, and ‘environmental justice’ offices and positions”; all ‘equity action plans’… ‘equity’ actions, initiatives, or programs, ‘equity-related’ grants or contracts; and all DEI or DEIA performance requirements for employees, contractors, or grantees”.
Universities and research institutions are scrambling to understand the full implications, with researchers worried that projects involving any mention of gender, race, or equity might be on the chopping block1. Some universities are even advising researchers to avoid words like "biodiversity" to prevent being flagged by AI-based grant review systems.
The Federal Workforce Reshuffle: Schedule Policy/Career
Remember that "Schedule F" concept from Trump's first term? It's back, now rebranded as "Schedule Policy/Career." This change is designed to reclassify career federal employees, including government scientists, as more like political appointments, removing civil service protections and making it easier to remove them from their positions.
One scientist summed it up bluntly: "It's clear that you can't be a researcher or scientist in the U.S. anymore" - unless, that is, you toe the new line where Up = Down.
What This Means for Your STEM Business - The Hard Truths
Now, my dears, let's talk about what this means for you as a founder or leader in the STEM space:
1. The Funding Landscape Is Shifting Under Your Feet
If your business relies on federal grants, partnerships with national labs, or university collaborations, brace yourself. The message is clear, as Robert Atkinson from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation puts it: "This is the world we're going to be in. We're not going to be expanding science. We're actually going to be cutting it."
2. Talent Exodus and Opportunity
With government scientists and researchers potentially looking for new homes, there could be an unprecedented talent migration to the private sector. Smart STEM businesses will position themselves to welcome these brilliant minds with open arms.
3. The Language Police Are On Patrol
The scrutiny of language around climate change, diversity, and related topics is already causing scientists to self-censor. If your business operates in these spaces, you may need to reconsider how you communicate about your work – both internally and externally.
4. Immigration Wildcards
Several executive orders focus on immigration, with potential impacts on high-skilled worker visas. The administration has ordered a review of "all visa programs to ensure that they are not used by foreign nation-states or other hostile actors to harm the security, economic, political, cultural, or other national interests of the United States." Given the importance of international talent to the tech and research sectors, this bears close watching.
The Silver Linings Playbook: Where Opportunity Hides
My lovely, even in storms of this magnitude, there are always opportunities for the prepared and the bold:
🤔 Private sector leadership in research will become more critical - as federal funding retreats, companies that step up to fund fundamental research may gain significant competitive advantages
🤔 Talent acquisition could become easier - with potential displacement of government scientists and researchers from universities dependent on federal funding
🤔 International partnerships may become more valuable as domestic resources tighten
🤔 The "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) has been tasked with "modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize efficiency and productivity" - which could eventually create opportunities for tech companies that can deliver on these goals2
What Happens Next: The Week Ahead
My sweet summer child, navigating this new landscape requires strategy, not panic. Over the next four days, I'll be sharing:
Tuesday: Inside DOGE - Examining structural reforms and agency appointments reshaping the STEM business environment
Wednesday: The Global Chessboard - Interpreting geopolitical fallout and tariff escalations for STEM businesses
Thursday: Beyond Defense - Reframing business relocation as a strategic growth catalyst
Friday: Scotland Calling? - A safe haven for US STEM businesses and their Founders.
Remember, dahling, we've weathered storms before.
If you don’t want to download the full White Paper, there’s a handy one-page executive summary below.
Until tomorrow, stay brilliant, stay resilient, and remember that the greatest innovations often emerge from the most challenging constraints.
Go! Confront the problem! Fight! Win! And call me when you get back, dahling. I enjoy our visits…
P.S. If you're wondering whether the US is still the right place for your business (and I know many Founders are), let's talk.
That Sanctuary Scotland program I’ve been working on is now ready to go - and yes, I did get buy in (so you’ll get support) from the various Scottish government agencies…
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻 Thank you for reading Founders' Fuel™. I write these posts so that I can help people like you become the leaders their businesses (and dreams) deserve.
This post is public so please feel free to share it with someone that you think will appreciate or benefit from it.😎🤜🏻🤛🏻
Yes, there actually is now a list of “banned words” and grant applications and federal/state contracts are now apparently AI-assessed to see if these are included. How very efficiently Nazi/Taliban/authoritative regime of your choice
Provided you’re happy being associated with this - personally, I can’t think of a quicker way to tank your international reputation and brand…