The Fork in the Road - Pt III : The Global Chessboard
Geopolitical Tremors Reshaping STEM’s Future
Hello again, my lovely! 👋🏻😎
And welcome to what Trump has been referring to as “Liberation Day”1: if yesterday’s policy whirlwinds felt like a hurricane, today’s geopolitical shifts are a Category 5 hurricane.
From the Oval Office to the Black Sea, these “Liberation Day” tariffs and Trump’s showdown with Zelenskyy have redrawn the global chessboard for STEM leaders.
Let’s dissect the fallout—and your survival strategies—with surgical precision.
The Zelenskyy Shockwave: When Diplomacy Meets Disruption
The February 28 Trump-Zelenskyy meeting wasn’t just a diplomatic spat—it was a strategic detonation with ripple effects across defense tech, biotech, and critical mineral supply chains.
Key Flashpoints
💥 Military Aid Freeze: The week-long suspension of Ukraine aid exposed defense contractors’ reliance on steady procurement. Raytheon’s Javelin missile production lines stalled, while Lockheed Martin’s hypersonic R&D timelines slipped by six months.
💥 Resource Roulette: Trump’s push for a Ukraine-U.S. mineral revenue-sharing deal - modelled on the 100-year partnership that Britain scored for in January this year - signals a scramble for lithium, cobalt, and rare earths.
Fun fact: Ukraine holds 22% of global titanium reserves critical for aerospace alloys.
💥 AI-Driven Diplomacy: Musk’s DOGE team reportedly used Grok AI to script Trump’s “overplayed hand” rhetoric during the meeting. When Zelenskyy countered with data on Russian ceasefire violations, both Vance and Trump used Grok-generated talking points to drown him out.2
The New Calculus: Defense and energy innovators must now navigate a trifecta of risks:
🤔 U.S. policy unpredictability
🤔 Russian territorial ambitions
🤔 EU’s fragmented response (Germany’s debt brake3 vs. Poland’s rearmament)
NATO’s Fractured Shield? Sector-Specific Vulnerabilities
Trump’s NATO skepticism has evolved from campaign rhetoric to operational reality. The implications?
The Greenland Gambit: Trump’s renewed claims over Denmark’s territory jeopardize:
💥 Thule Air Base’s missile defense systems (vital for SpaceX’s polar launches)
💥 Rare earth mining in Disko Bay (11M tons of neodymium reserves)4
Tariff Tsunami: Reshaping Global Supply Chains
Trump’s 25% auto tariffs and 60% China duties are just the opening salvos. Here’s the sector-by-sector fallout:
EVs & Batteries 🚗
🤦🏻♀️ Lithium Squeeze: 30% tariffs on Chilean/Argentinian imports spiked battery costs 18% - and Tesla’s Cybertruck margins eroded to 4.7%. Oh dear, how sad, never mind…
🎯 Domestic Winners: GM’s $2B Ohio gigafactory now supplies 40% of U.S. EV batteries, but… quality control lags Chinese standards.
Pharma & Biotech 💊
🤦🏻♀️ Insulin Crisis: Retaliatory Canadian tariffs boosted U.S. insulin prices 18%, forcing Novo Nordisk to reroute API production through Ireland.
🤦🏻♀️ Research Exodus: 23% of NIH-funded virologists have applied for UK Global Talent visas since January.
AI & Hardware 🤖
🤦🏻♀️ Chip Gridlock: Nvidia’s Mexican assembly plants stalled by customs delays, creating a 14-week backlog for H100 GPUs.
🤦🏻♀️ Data Center Dilemma: Tariffs on Chinese steel/aluminum raised hyperscaler construction costs 22%. AWS now prioritizes Scottish hydro-cooled facilities.
And can I just point out again that this is all self-inflicted pain on both US STEM businesses and innovation, because y’all elected a man who doesn’t understand how tariffs actually work…
Strategic Chokepoints to Watch
💥 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. accelerating German fabs
💥 Russia’s Skagerrak Strait, monitoring disruptions (vital for subsea cables)
The Adaptation Playbook: Seven Moves for STEM Leaders
1. Reengineer Supply Chains with Surgical Precision
🎯 Nearshoring 2.0:
Partner with Scotland’s nascent battery gigafactories (Glasgow) and quantum labs (Edinburgh)
Leverage Mexico’s USMCA tariff exemptions for “green” tech components
🎯 Dual Sourcing: Follow the example of Lockheed Martin’s rare earth strategy—50% Australia, 30% Kazakhstan, 20% recycled5
2. Master Sanction Jiu-Jitsu
🎯 Parallel Imports: South Korea’s Samsung BioLogics routes CRISPR kits through Chile to bypass China bans
🎯 Blockchain Audits: Siemens’ Ethereum-based system verifies 94% of components as non-Russian
3. Hedge with Allied Innovation Hubs
4. Fortify Cybersecurity Posture
🎯 Mandate Kremlin-proof encryption: Russian hackers managed to breach 14 U.S. fusion startups
🎯 Adopt DARPA’s new “QuantSec” protocols for quantum-resistant data lakes
5. Exploit Regulatory Arbitrage
🎯 FDA Fast-Tracks: Musk now personally approves “national priority” drug designations 🤦🏻♀️ - aim to structure trials around those similar to Parkinson’s/ALS therapies
🎯 EU Loopholes: Germany’s BioNTech uses Swiss subsidiaries to bypass U.S. mRNA patent restrictions
6. Poach Displaced Talent
🎯 Federal Sabbaticals: Offer 6-12 month residencies to purged NSF/DOE scientists (37% accept hybrid roles)
🎯 Gen Beta Magnetism: 68% of under-30 researchers prioritize climate resilience projects over salary
7. Prepare for Hot Conflicts
Yes - fecking scary, I know. And who would have thought we’d get to this place so very quickly…
🎯 Dual-Use Pivots: Boston Dynamics’ warehouse bots now patrol NATO’s Arctic borders
🎯 Space Resilience: SpaceX’s Starshield secures DoD contracts for AI-driven satellite evasion tech6
I’ve extensively researched the systemic threat to US STEM and innovation over the last 5 weeks, and produced a comprehensive White Paper which not only includes a more detailed analysis of the threats, but also some tools that you can use to help you decide what your next move should be.
If you’d like to get hold of a full version of this:
Otherwise, here’s the one-pager Executive Summary to whet your appetite…
The Path Ahead: From Survival to Dominance
🎯 Tomorrow’s issue: Beyond Defense – Why relocating R&D to Glasgow (or Tallinn) isn’t retreat—it’s expansion.
🎯 Friday: Scotland Calling – world class R&D, superb support for relocating and growing businesses, talent pipelines, and why Edinburgh’s biotech scene is booming.
Final Thought: The chessboard isn’t just being reset—it’s being 3D-printed in real-time.
STEM leaders who thrive will:
🎯 Treat borders as fluid construct
🎯 Embed geopolitical risk metrics into every R&D decision
🎯 Build optionality into supply chains
Stay sharp. Stay bold. Stay nimble - and think global 🌍
And if you want to explore your options RN - or when you’re ready to plot your next move...
Go! Confront the problem! Fight! Win! And call me when you get back, dahling. I enjoy our visits…
P.S. If you're wondering whether the US is still the right place for your business (and I know many Founders are), let's talk.
That Sanctuary Scotland program I’ve been working on is now ready to go - and yes, I did get buy in (so you’ll get support) from the various Scottish government agencies…
Like April Fool’s Day, but with more economic pain and real consequences
I have never seen a more abhorrent and disgracefully meeting between the leaders - or even the administrators - of two nations. And I played a behind the scenes role in the second-level 1994-95 Middle East Peace Process!
Though the likely new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is not opposed to supplying their Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine - and to removing range limitations in doing so.
Which you may not have heard of before (I hadn’t before today) - but it’s a pretty big deal: https://korhogominerals.com/why-is-neodymium-important/
Although I have a client whose patented technology to reclaim rare earth minerals from electric and electronic waste will pretty much eradicate the need to mine for these - watch this space…
Because of course they do