The Fork in the Road - Pt III : The Global Chessboard - an Emergency Update
Overnight Fallout & Critical Actions
Good morning, my lovely👋🏻
Not that there’s much good about it, given that the US’s version of Korea’s Dear Leader decided to set the world on fire after the US markets closed, because he *checks notes* still has no fecking idea how tariffs actually work…
Yep, it’s only 10.30 in the morning here in the UK, and my WTAF meme is already getting its first work out *sigh*.
I was going to send an emergency update to yesterday’s post out late last night, but I decided to sleep on it so I could see what the early morning reaction would be from Asia-Pac and Europe/UK.
🎯TL:DR Version: Overnight reactions to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have significantly escalated risks for STEM sectors.
Below: revised intel and time-critical pivots based on Asia-Pac/EU responses.
Overnight Developments
1. Southeast Asia Crisis
💥 Vietnam activated emergency task force; 46% tariffs threaten $142B in exports (30% of GDP). Apple/Samsung suppliers halted shipments from Ho Chi Minh ports.
💥 Cambodia/Laos: 49%/48% tariffs risk mass layoffs in apparel/electronics manufacturing.
🤔 Opportunity: Philippines (17% tariff) and Singapore (10%) emerge as relocation hubs for U.S.-bound goods.
2. EU Retaliation Imminent
💥 20% tariffs triggered EU’s “three-stage counterstrike”:
April 5: 25% duties on U.S. pharma/medical devices
2. April 10: Blockade of rare earth exports to U.S. defense contractors
3. April 15: Digital services tax targeting AWS/Microsoft Azure.
💥 Auto sector: Volkswagen suspended Mexico shipments; BMW rerouting through Türkiye.
3. UK’s Carve-Out Gambit
💥 PM Keir Starmer pursuing bilateral deal to exempt Scottish renewables (hydrogen, tidal) from tariffs.
Action: If you’re in the clean or renewable energy sector, accelerate your investigation of potential energy R&D partnerships in Aberdeen/Edinburgh ahead of Friday’s “Scotland Calling” deep dive.
4. Market Carnage
💥 Maersk shares -7% (supply chain paralysis); European industrials (Siemens, ASML) down 4-9%.
💥 Safe havens surge: Gold +3.1%, Bitcoin +11% (BlackRock’s IBIT ETF).
Revised Sector-Specific Threats
Biotech/Pharma 🧬
💥 EU insulin embargo: Novo Nordisk stockpiling APIs in Ireland; U.S. hospitals face 22% price hikes by Monday.
🎯 Action: Apply for FDA’s “Biosecure Supply Chain” designation by 5 PM ET today to access Irish/Israeli API routes.
Defense Tech 🛰️
💥 EU rare earth blockade: Lockheed’s F-35 production at risk; Pentagon releasing 2,100 tons titanium only to “Tier 1” contractors.
🎯 Action: File for Tier 1 status via Defense Production Act portal (deadline: April 5).
Energy/Batteries 🔋
💥 Vietnam lithium freeze: Tesla scrambling to secure Australia’s Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) under AUKUS terms1.
🎯 Action: Prepay for 2026 output from TSMC’s Arizona fab (CHIPS 2.0 exempt).
5 New Overnight Actions
1. Pivot to ASEAN Exemptions
| Country | Tariff Rate | Strategic Play |
|-------------|-------------|-----------------------------------------|
| Philippines | 17% | Relocate chip testing/assembly |
| Singapore | 10% | Route APIs through Jurong Island ports |
| Timor-Leste | 10% | Launch shell corps for mineral exports |
2. Exploit EU Counterstrike Loopholes
🎯 Stage 1 Dodge: if you’re in pharma or drug development, set up a subsidiary in Switzerland and license drug patents to it (Novartis model) to bypass pharma tariffs.
🎯 Stage 2 Hedge: If you need rare earth metals for your business, set up a subsidiary in Scotland and stockpile 6 months of EU rare earths. I understand you may be able to do this in Scotland’s Leuchars Station (RAF-backed storage) - but I’ll check this out later today.
3. Legal Shields
🎯 File amicus briefs in Texas lawsuits challenging IEEPA constitutionality (EIN required).
🎯 Lobby as many members of the Senate GOP as you can to support STEM manufacturing exemptions (targeted vote: April 10).
4. Financial Triage
A difficult one this, as the advice I’ve been given - which I’m passing on to you - creates a significant cognitive dissonance with my gut feeling about both European stocks and crypto2
🤔 Consider divesting any EU exposure: the advice is to sell Siemens (SIE:GER)/ASML (ASML:NAS) holdings; shift to Tokyo Electron (8035:JPY).
🤔 Consider hedging with crypto: if you can, allocate 5-7% of cash reserves to Bitcoin (post-ETF liquidity surge).
5. Personnel Contingencies
🎯 Expedite UK Global Talent visas for R&D teams (78% approval rate in March).
🎯 Activate “Safe Harbor” clauses: Force majeure protections for layoffs at tariff-hit subsidiaries.
Geopolitical Red Flags
💥 Vietnam-China pivot: Xi Jinping’s April 8 Hanoi visit could trigger U.S. secondary sanctions.
💥 Cambodia unrest risk: Garment worker strikes likely; if you have any feet on the ground in this country, audit factories in Phnom Penh by April 10.
Forward Guidance
🌍 Today 3 PM ET: EU publishes retaliatory tariff list (monitor POLITICO.eu live blog).
🌍 Tomorrow’s newsletter: Scotland Calling - we’ll also look at how Glasgow’s battery gigafactories and Edinburgh’s biotech corridors offer tariff immunity.
Final Alert: This isn’t a trade war - it’s a scorched-earth reset.
Relocate or pivot now or become collateral.
Stay ruthless - but also be empathetic when it comes to others’ pain (and there will be a lot of this)
Stay agile.
And when you need afterburners… call me. 🚀
Citations reflect developments as of 10:08 AM BST.
If I get a chance today, I’m going to set up a regularly updated tariff tracker page at GrowthCircles.com/tariff-watch.
And I suspect he’ll be told to feck off…
Which I know a lot of people have made a lot of money from - my step-son included as I found out only last night 😮, but I still get massive Ponzi scheme vibes from it…