When the American Dream Becomes a Nightmare - Pt I

Time to Face the Hard Truth If You're a Diverse Founder in the USA

Hello again, my lovelies 👋

So we’re now 2 months on from my last ‘stack series on “The Fork In the Road” - and sadly, things haven’t exactly got better for y’all across the pond. Even then, I would not have foreseen how quickly masked and un-uniformed armed men cosplaying “Government Agents” would be snatching people off the streets in broad daylight, with no warrant, because their skin is the “wrong” color…

It’s no longer a fork in the road that y’all are facing: today we're diving into waters that many would rather avoid - because, as leaders, we don't have the luxury of looking away when the storm clouds are gathering.

After nearly 35 years in the trenches of business strategy and leadership, I've learned that the most dangerous threats are often the ones we see coming but choose to ignore until it's too late.

If you're a founder in the USA who doesn't fit the traditional mold - if you're not a cisgender, heterosexual, white, male, Christian entrepreneur¹ - we need to have a serious conversation about what's happening in your business environment right now.

Because the data I'm seeing isn't just concerning; it's a five-alarm fire that too many of you are still trying to rationalize away.

The Funding Cliff

When Your Very Identity Becomes Your Growth Ceiling

Let's start with the most immediate threat to your business survival: access to capital. The numbers here aren't just disappointing—they're catastrophic.

The venture capital funding landscape reveals severe disparities, with all-male founding teams receiving over 83% of total funding while women of color receive less than 1%

The venture capital landscape has become a fortress designed to keep you out unless you fit the mold.

In 2024, all-male founding teams captured 83.6% of the $289 billion in global venture capital—that's $241.9 billion flowing to businesses that probably look nothing like yours. Meanwhile, female-only founding teams received a mere 2.3% of total funding, and women of color? Less than 1%.

This isn't just about fairness—it's about mathematical impossibility.

Black entrepreneurs saw a 45% decrease in funding at the end of 2022, and the trend is accelerating in the wrong direction. When organizations like the Fearless Fund—specifically created to address these disparities—are being sued for discrimination and forced to shut down their programs for Black women entrepreneurs, you're not just facing bias; you're witnessing the systematic dismantling of the few lifelines that existed.

Here's what this means for your business if you don’t fit into the perfect Republican-approved mold: you're being forced to bootstrap while your competitors access unlimited growth capital. You're running a marathon with weights strapped to your ankles while others ride in vehicles. This isn't sustainable, and it's not getting better.

Economic Storm Clouds

The Perfect Storm for Vulnerable Businesses

Now let's talk about the broader economic picture, because diverse founders are always the first to get hit when the economy turns south.

The probability of a US recession in 2025 stands at 35-40%, with GDP growth slowing to a devastating 0.1%.

When economic tsunamis hit, guess whose businesses get swept away first? It's not the well-capitalized, well-connected ventures with deep pockets and established networks.

The ripple effects are already visible:

• Consumer spending is contracting as households brace for impact

• Credit markets are tightening just when you need access most

• Investment committees are becoming even more risk-averse, which translates to even more conservative (read: traditional) investment patterns

For founders already operating on thin margins without access to traditional funding sources, this economic downturn isn't just a challenge - it's an extinction event.

Trade War Casualties

When Policy Becomes Personal

The current trade environment has turned into a nightmare for entrepreneurs, particularly those in technology and manufacturing sectors where diverse founders are increasingly making their mark.

Tariffs of 10-25% are being imposed seemingly at random, with some sectors facing rates as high as 145%. If you're a Gen Z entrepreneur who built your business model around affordable overseas manufacturing - as many diverse founders have done to compete against better-funded competitors - you're watching your profit margins evaporate overnight.

The uncertainty is equally damaging. As one founder noted, "How am I even supposed to be trying to run a financial analysis here when the inputs keep changing?"

When you can't predict your input costs from month to month, strategic planning becomes impossible.

This isn't just about numbers on a spreadsheet. This is about 52% of manufactured goods in the US relying on foreign inputs, meaning even "domestic" alternatives aren't truly insulated from these disruptions.

Civil Rights in Retreat

When the System Turns Against You

Perhaps most alarming is the systematic erosion of civil rights protections that diverse entrepreneurs have relied upon for decades. We're not talking about subtle policy shifts - we're witnessing the active dismantling of programs specifically designed to level the playing field.

The rollback is comprehensive and accelerating:

• Federal rollback of DEI initiatives across government agencies and contractors

• Legal challenges to minority business programs using civil rights laws as weapons against the very people they were designed to protect

• One in eight companies are eliminating or reducing their DEI programs, removing critical support networks and opportunities

The Supreme Court's recent decisions have emboldened challenges to any program that acknowledges racial or gender disparities. The Nuziard v. Minority Business Development Agency case struck down presumptions that certain racial minorities face social disadvantages, effectively gutting decades of supportive infrastructure.

This isn't just about losing government contracts - it's about losing the entire ecosystem of programs, mentorship, and networks that helped level an already uneven playing field.

Rule of Law:

When Constitutional Protections Evaporate

Here's where we enter truly dangerous territory. The expansion of the Alien Enemies Act isn't just about immigration - it's about the erosion of constitutional protections that affect every non-white entrepreneur.

Federal lawyers are now arguing that this 18th-century wartime law allows federal agents to enter homes without warrants. 😮😮😮

I’m pretty darn sure you’ve already been thinking about what this means for your business operations:

• Surprise raids on your facilities without judicial oversight

• Detention of employees without due process

• Seizure of business assets under emergency powers

The "background circumstances" rule for discrimination claims has been struck down, making it easier for majority groups to challenge diversity initiatives. Meanwhile, basic Fourth Amendment protections are being eroded under the guise of national security.

This is not hyperbole - these are documented policy positions being implemented right now.

Personal Safety

The Hidden Tax on Diverse Entrepreneurs

Let's address the elephant in the room: personal safety.

57% of women entrepreneurs report experiencing online harassment, and 77% take proactive safety measures just to conduct business.

This isn't just about hurt feelings - it's about operational costs:

• Additional security measures drain resources from core business activities

• Restricted mobility limits market access and networking opportunities

• 21% of women report concerns about harassment from male customers, forcing them to limit business interactions

• 14% fear aggressive haggling or potential violence during transactions

When basic business activities require security considerations that your competitors don't face, you're operating at a fundamental disadvantage that compounds over time.

The Tipping Point

When Staying Becomes Irrational

So here's the question that keeps me up at night:

What will it take for you to realize that staying in the US to run your business is no longer a safe or feasible option?

Will it be when your funding sources completely dry up? When your supply chains become economically unviable? When the economic collapse makes your customer base disappear? When federal agents search your facilities without warrants? When a significant proportion of your team are disappeared to “Alligator Auschwitz”? When your personal civil rights protections are completely eliminated?

Or will you wait until they’ve closed the borders; you’re on your way to an RFK Jr “re-education camp”, and it's too late to make a strategic exit…

The Strategic Imperative

Planning Your Exit Strategy

I've spent decades helping founders navigate complex business environments, and I'm telling you now: this is not a normal business cycle.

The convergence of funding discrimination, economic instability, trade disruption, civil rights rollbacks, and constitutional erosion creates a perfect storm that particularly targets entrepreneurs who don't fit the traditional mold.

The most successful leaders I've worked with share one common trait: they take hard decisions before they're forced to make them.

They see the storm coming and adjust their strategy accordingly.

If you're a diverse founder in the USA, your strategic planning needs to include:

1. Diversification of operations across multiple jurisdictions

2. Alternative funding sources outside traditional US venture capital

3. Supply chain resilience that doesn't depend on US trade policies

4. Legal structure optimization that provides maximum flexibility

5. Exit strategy development that preserves maximum value

This isn't about giving up on the US - it's about recognizing that the current US administration has given up on you and created a business environment that has fundamentally changed. And then adapting accordingly.

The countries that are actively welcoming diverse entrepreneurs understand what the US seems to have forgotten: diversity isn't just morally right - it's economically essential.

The $5 trillion economic opportunity represented by supporting women and diverse founders isn't disappearing; it's just moving to more welcoming shores.

As I write this, over 40% of visa applications being handled by one of my Sanctuary Scotland panel of Scottish immigration lawyers are for American High Net Worth Individuals, Founders, and CEOs. And 80% of these people fit squarely in the sights of the Republican administration’s “DEI” targets.

The question isn't whether this storm will pass - it's whether your business will survive long enough to see the other side.

And for many of you, that survival might require making the hardest decision of your entrepreneurial journey: recognizing when it's time to go.

Tomorrow, I’ll explain a bit more about how Scotland welcomes and supports Founders and CEOs like you².

Meanwhile, if you’d like to find out more about how my Sanctuary Scotland program is already helping US-based Founders and Entrepreneurs find a safe and welcoming haven in a country where their diversity is valued, book an initial exploratory call with me here.

Your move, my lovelies.

But don't wait too long to make it…

Until tomorrow, take care, stay safe, and continue to be awesome!

PS #NoKings

1. Or unless you’re a very wealthy entrepreneur with the clout and influence of Peter Thiel 🙄

2. And your pets - because I know that for many of you, this is one BIG thing that you worry about.